As I was out of the house yesterday, I was not able to publish which pairs I will be keeping an eye on. There are some interesting developments that I want to share.
EUR vs USD
Last week I was mentioning a rejection candle. That candle did get violated to the down side.
My bias for the week ahead is bearish on EUR/USD. We had a strong bearish candle with a close below 1,10. It is interesting that the close is right on support. Depending on USD performance, we may get follow through or a bounce. The strong bearish candle puts more weight for the bears. Even thoug my bias is bearish I won't disregard bullish setups. But these need to be picture book setups. Ideally I can manage to get a long trade set to Breakeven and a Short trade at a level of interest. This way I let the market decide where to go. But this is a difficult task.
EUR vs CAD
Bearish bias for the week.
A Bearish Engulfing Pattern with a close below 1,45 sets my bias in favour of the bears. Prive made a strong move south last week and may stall this week.
AUD vs CAD
Bearish bias for the week.
Last week closed as a Bearish Engulfing Pattern. But price was not able to close below parity. I did highlight the resistance level some time back and mentioned that a move south is likely. See here and here. A close below parity would have been favoured. But we do not always get what we prefer. Anyway, my bias is bearish for the week ahead. We did get a close above resistance which should act as support. But the bearish pattern gives me a bearish bias.
EUR vs NZD
Bearish bias for the week.
EUR/NZD is interesting. Price is in a range and did bounce off resistance. We had a close below 1,55. The long lower shadows/wicks to the left suggest bullish potential. However, my bias is bearish for the week. If I get my bearish trigger, I might consider taking profits rather early. An interesting level that price is highly likely to reach is the black dashed line.
NZD vs CAD
Bearish bias for the week.
We did get the bounce off the ATHs. Price is now fairly away from the ATH. With a strong bearish candle my bias is bearish. However, we may get correction. I am rather interested in shorts and would ignore any longs for the time being.
EUR vs JPY
Bearish bias for the week.
JPY pairs are difficult to trade lately. I did not get my long trade last week. The trigger missed by less than a pip. This week my bias did shift in favour of the bears. Other JPY pairs are not really showing the same picture, which makes trading JPY pairs rather difficult. I go with what I see on the pair I observe. EUR/JPY is about the only interesting JPY pair. I am also keeping an eye on CAD/JPY and NZD/JPY. But these pairs did not give a weekly signal. That's why they are not listed here.
GBP vs JPY
This pair is displayed to present the difficulty of gauging JPY pairs.
The Hammer like formation is a bullish signal. While I have a bullish bias on GBP/JPY I have a bearish bias on EUR/JPY. JPY is giving mixed signals, which makes trading JPY pairs rather hazardous. A test of 130 is highly likely. Both lower wicks show a rejection of lower prices.
AUD vs USD
Bullish bias for the week.
0,75 did hold as support. The Trendline showed confluence. There is a good chance price will move back up to test resistance. Ideally I get a long trigger and price eventually break resistance presented by the upper wicks to the left.
EUR vs AUD
Bearish bias for the week.
Price did make a strong move south and closed below 1,45 in the vicinity of support (highlighted in green). My bias is bearish. But I am aware that price is at support. It is the first time since November 2015 that price was able to violate and close below 1,45. This sets my bias in favour of bears even though we closed inside the support zone. A test of 1,45 is highly likely and very favoured.
EUR vs GBP
Bearish bias for the week.
Interestingly last week closed as a small Shooting Star. I do not really like to refer to this candle as a Shooting Star since this candle formed inside the long upper shadow/wick of the previous candle. But the Shooting Star like candle presents rejection of higher prices. Most GBP pairs did form a long wick the week ahead giving me a long bias for last week. (See here)
Among the GBP pairs, EUR/GBP is the most interesting pair followed by GBP/JPY). Putting JPY inot the equation I prefer this (EUR/GBP) more due to mixed signals regarding JPY.
There is so much more to talk about GBP, but it would get very confusing. One thing to note is, that all GBP pairs were not able to violate the lower wick of the previous week. Meaning all GBP pairs formed Inside Candles. However, considering the overall market structure and past performance of the GBP pairs, we see that GBP did violate lower wicks in the past and made at least 2.000 pips moves south. This makes GBP very difficult to trade.
USD vs CAD
Bearish bias for the week.
Last week I had a bullish bias due to the violation of range resistance. I did not get a long trigger last week. This week my bias is bearish with a a close back inside the range resulting in a Bearish Engulfing Pattern. This Bear Eng Pat is not an ideal formed Bearish Engulfing Pattern. But it is one. Range tacticks come in play. I will be keeping an eye for short setups this week.
US Oil
Bearish bias for the week.
Price made a close above the 50 level which is bullish. But the shape of the candle is not convincing. Additionally price shows signs of bouncing off the resistence level marked in yellow. Ideally I am able to add to my existing position riding this asset south. The structure appears bullish with higher lows. However, US Oil seems to run out of steam and a move south is likely.
Fnally I want to present another pair that is very interesting for the future.
NZD vs USD
No signal yet.
NZD/USD as approaching an interesting level. My expectation is a bounce off this level. But there is no signal yet. We have a TL in confluence of a horizontal support level giving this a higher likelyhood of bouncing off the 0,70 level. but this is future music. A weekly close will complete the picture.
Happy trading,
TT
Keine Kommentare:
Kommentar veröffentlichen